One Step Forward, One Step Back

Today's Currency Market Focus

GBP: One step forward, one step back
EUR: Solid performer
USD: Fed set to raise rates this week

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GBP: One step forward, one step back

The only certain thing about Brexit is its uncertainty. After a bunch of positive noises last week, the process has taken a big step backward after EU leaders rejected Theresa May’s free-trade plan at their summit in Salzburg saying it “will not work”.

Theresa May has admitted the UK and EU remain a “long way apart” on several issues but has asked the EU to put forward their own ideas.

In terms of the economic calendar, it’s a quiet start to the week for the UK but Brexit news is likely to dominate Sterling action anyway.

EUR: Solid performer

The Euro was a solid performer last week despite a run of soft data. The latter half of last week saw French, German and EU data all miss estimates but it was events elsewhere that drove the Euro’s outperformance.

With the Pound hampered by Brexit and the US Dollar undergoing a correction, the EU has regained favour with investors.

In terms of this week, Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank (ECB) is due to give speeches on both Tuesday and Wednesday. His remarks tend to be high-impact events for the Euro.

USD: Fed set to raise rates this week

President Trump may not like it, but the Fed looks set to raise rates on Wednesday of this week – which would be for the 4th time since he was elected.

The odds of a hike stand at over 90%, so it looks baked in already, therefore we are not expecting the announcement to be a big catalyst for the Dollar.

Lately, trade tensions with China have overshadowed any US domestic news. While a Dollar correction was long overdue, some analysts have begun to call the bottom, particularly given the US is tightening while just about everybody else is sitting still.

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Current rates:

Monday 24th September 2018 at 10:45

£1.00 GBP = 1.1149 EURO

£1.00 GBP = 1.3124 USD

£1.00 GBP = 1.8044 AUD

£1.00 GBP = 1.9688 NZD

£1.00 GBP = 1.9688 CAD

£1.00 GBP = 18.7408 ZAR

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