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GBP: Profit taking pause

Sterling took a dip yesterday after the latest wage data came in lower than expected, but at 2.8%, wage growth is now just above inflation. The implication is that low levels of unemployment (42-year low) is feeding through to real wage growth. 

The Bank of England (BoE) will be aware that it needs to tread a fine line. Parts of the UK economy (retail, construction, housing) are softening but inflationary pressures are building. It’s why markets are expecting the BoE to “gradually” keep raising rates. 

Today the all-important Consumer Price Index is released. Last month inflation came in lower than expected, which was Sterling negative. We’ll find out later whether it was a blip or not. 

EUR: Germany leads the way…down

The Euro steadied yesterday but it was due to falls in Sterling and the Dollar rather than anything positive for the Euro. 

There are growing concerns that the EU’s powerhouse Germany is undergoing a downturn. Both Bloomberg and The Telegraph have highlighted the recent “data slump”. 

On Tuesday, Germany’s ZEW Survey (a sentiment gauge) fell to 5-year lows. While it’s too early to talk about recession risks, it will cement the European Central Bank’s (ECB) cautious stance. 

Today we have the Eurozone consumer price index data for March. Any signs of weakness would see the Euro under more pressure. 

USD: Bounce off lows

The US Dollar got rewarded for strong data yesterday. Better than expected housing starts and capacity utilisation brought back buyers for the Dollar which had slumped to a three-week low against a currency basket at the start of the week.

President Trump stirred up both China and Russia on Monday accusing them of “playing the Currency Devaluation game”. This infers Trump is not pushing for a stronger Dollar. He knows a weak Dollar will help bring jobs back to the US, so those expecting a big Dollar rebound may be waiting a (long) while. 

Thanks For Reading, What Next?

To discuss current exchange rates and currency purchasing strategies, please contact your trader today on 01872 487 500.

If you don't yet have an account please request a free quote and we’ll look after you from there.

Have a great day,

Geoff Lambourne - Direct Dial me on 0044 (0)1872 487 470.

Current rates: 

Wednesday 18th April 2018 at 10:30

£1.00 GBP = 1.1468 EURO

£1.00 GBP = 1.4182 USD

£1.00 GBP = 1.8290 AUD

£1.00 GBP = 1.9399 NZD

£1.00 GBP = 1.7856 CAD

£1.00 GBP = 17.0027 ZAR

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