Exchange Rate Lesson of the Week

GBP: Sterling get the wobbles

All up, Sterling has had a pretty poor week. In the last two days we’ve had inflation reported at its lowest level for 12 months and retail sales growth go negative for March.

It’s well and truly taken the wind out of Sterling’s sails.

Perhaps the most important lesson from this week is that when exchange rates are favourable, it’s worth taking advantage of them. Trying to decide the exact moment to trade is fraught with psychological pitfalls.

When Sterling’s rising it feels like it will keep going and going. Greed kicks in. We hold off to get a higher rate. But it’s impossible to pick the highs and lows. By the time we realise the high has come and gone, it’s too late.

Those that were able to trade at over 1.15 against the Euro and 1.42 against the Dollar will be feeling pretty good right now.

EUR: Surplus in the spotlight

Usually a large trading surplus would be seen as a good thing. But with President Trump looking to rebalance the scales, the EU is starting to stand out like a sore thumb.

For that reason, the response to the EU’s latest surplus received a mixed response yesterday.

Today German producer prices have come out first thing and have fallen short of expectations. This is further evidence that Europe’s powerhouse is losing steam.

USD: Trump predicts good things

The US Dollar got a boost yesterday after President Trump eased fears of trade wars.

As always, Twitter was the source “Great meeting with Prime Minister Abe of Japan...Talked in depth about North Korea, Military and Trade. Good things will happen!”.

It was enough to overshadow the latest US jobs numbers, which came in below forecast.

Today investors will be looking for clues on interest rate policy in a speech by Federal Reserve member, Charles Evans.

Thanks For Reading, What Next?

To discuss current exchange rates and currency purchasing strategies, please contact your trader today on 01872 487 500.

If you don't yet have an account please request a free quote and we’ll look after you from there.

Have a great day,

Geoff Lambourne - Direct Dial me on 0044 (0)1872 487 470.

Current rates:

Friday 20th April 2018 at 09:30

£1.00 GBP = 1.1396 EURO

£1.00 GBP = 1.4053 USD

£1.00 GBP = 1.8231 AUD

£1.00 GBP = 1.9437 NZD

£1.00 GBP = 1.7809 CAD

£1.00 GBP = 16.8596 ZAR

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