Markets are forward-looking beasts

By saying that, I mean they not only react to current news but also try to anticipate news before it occurs.

Which is why I wanted to touch on what’s happening right now.

Futures markets are pricing in a bunch of interest rate cuts in 2024.

Good news for borrowers, but a mixed bag for currencies.

At the moment, markets are expecting the EU to slash rates by around 1.5% next year, the US to cut by 1.25% and the UK by 0.75%.

As currencies weaken with lower rates, any difference in the size of the cuts would trigger a good dose of currency volatility.

If all remains unchanged (a big if), the Pound should benefit relative to the Euro and Dollar.

A lot could & will happen between now and then, but that is the current consensus thinking across the medium term.

In the short-term we have had a bit of profit taking in Pound Sterling after its stellar run recently.

Both GBP/EUR and GBP/USD have drifted down over the past week.

There’s just over 2 weeks to go in 2023...

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