The UK economy has fared surprisingly well since the referendum in June and outperformed many doom-mongering Brexit forecasts.
The immediate action taken by the BoE in cutting interest rates and increasing QE will have helped, as has the depreciation of the Pound.
The Q4 UK GDP reading was better than expected at 0.6% and this helped support Sterling when it was released last month but this was entirely driven by a well performing service sector. As we bear down on article 50 being invoked next month how are the UK’s vital economic statistics looking in 2017?
It would not be over stretching the point to say they there are some concerns. Last week’s service sector growth figure missed expectations for the first time since immediately after the EU referendum in July. Retail sales fell a whopping -1.9%, the worse decline since 2012. Perhaps setting the tone the housing market this year, house prices also fell in January by -0.9% and consumer confidence has remained negative despite a slight improvement on the previous month.
The only really strong number is inflation and which coupled with a slowing economy is no good thing- stagflation. Sterling’s rally yesterday was largely down to MPC Forbes’s call for rate rise which would help combat inflation but also hinder what appears to be fragile growth.
It is hard to imagine that the triggering of Article 50 at the end of March will suddenly improve the UK’s economic environment. When Brexit negotiations begin further pressure is likely to be heaped on Sterling. Future uncertainty will impact the UK domestically and as we have seen since the summer international investors will be wary.
This uncertainty only means one thing for Sterling....
People looking at buying exposed to this risk should start evaluating the potential impact of a 5-10% deprecation in the value of the Pound.
Current rates:
Wednesday 8th February 2017 at 12:00
£1.00 GBP = 1.1726 EURO
£1.00 GBP = 1.2484 USD
£1.00 GBP = 1.6362 AUD
£1.00 GBP = 1.7099 NZD
£1.00 GBP = 1.6419 CAD
£1.00 GBP = 16.7921 ZAR
Just imagine if YOU could forecast the exchange rate?
No one can do that of course but being well informed is a good start and knowing the events coming up that may influence the exchange rate may help you with your planning.
The latest quarterly currency market forecasts from the international money transfer experts, FC Exchange, are now available. The reports are essential reading for anyone buying or selling a property, in fact anyone making international money transfers.
The currency markets will always fluctuate, but last year saw unprecedented levels of volatility. The currency forecasts review the factors that have contributed to the uncertainty we have seen and look ahead to the issues that could affect currency markets in the next quarter and throughout 2017.
Grab your Free Report here...
Do you want more information ?
So if you need to buy or sell sterling and would like to be kept up to date with all the latest data releases and exchange rate movements then feel free to contact myself Ben Amrany. If you are buying or selling a house in France we will make sure your monies are in the right place at the right time, we work hand in hand with you and Cle France.
For more information on the currency service I can provide please feel free to contact myself...
Ben Amrany from FC Exchange follow this link or phone and ask for myself and quote "Cle France" on 020 7989 0000.
You may contact me directly using this form (click here) with your requirement and I will explain the options that are available to you in getting the best exchange rate.
For everything you need to know about French property visit www.clefrance.co.uk
